Reconsidering Bellwether Locations in U.S. Presidential Elections
This article finds that U.S.
Why It Matters
The publication begins with a motivating question: S. presidential elections?
Its central contribution is to show that this article finds that U.S.
It matters because the findings connect institutional choices to the way authority, public responsibility, and political behavior are experienced in practice.
Key Findings
- Few counties can consistently pick the winner of presidential elections as geographic polarization increases.
- All-or-nothing and swingometric bellwethers are not reliable predictors of future election outcomes.
- Barometric bellwethers are somewhat better predictors but still limited, especially in close elections.
- Bellwether counties tend to be less diverse, less well educated, and have higher turnout than non-bellwethers.
- The predictive power of bellwether counties has declined over time, and relying on them for forecasts is not justified.
Research Design
- Design
- Article
- Data
- County-level presidential election results from Algara (2021) and Leip (2022)
- Geography
- United States (county-level analysis)
- Time Period
- 1932–2020
- Unit of Analysis
- county
- Methods
- Analysis of county-level presidential election results from 1932 to 2020.; Definition and operationalization of three types of bellwether counties: all-or-nothing, barometric, and swingometric.; Logistic regression models to test whether past bellwether status predicts future status.; Comparison of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of bellwether and non-bellwether counties.
Full Abstract
We examine the notion of a “bellwether” location in the electoral political context. Bellwethers are thought to have predictive power because they supposedly signal how the entire electorate will move on election day. We consider how the number of bellwether counties—defined in several ways—has fluctuated since the 1930s. We also explore the extent to which bellwethers successfully predict future elections. With the proliferation of geographic polarization, few counties can successively and successfully pick the winner of presidential elections. Other bellwether measures fare slightly better or worse, but as Tufte and Sun (1975) found nearly half a century ago, bellwethers today continue to be poor predictors of future performance.
Citation
Presidential Studies Quarterly 52 (3): 509-534.
- Venue
- Presidential Studies Quarterly
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 509–534
- DOI
- 10.1111/psq.12793