Partisanship, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Accountability
Research Question
How does a change in presidential party control alter citizens’ economic assessments and the foundations of retrospective accountability?
Main Finding
Economic perceptions shift meaningfully after partisan control of the presidency changes, even when underlying economic conditions do not change as quickly. Partisan identity strongly structures how voters interpret the economy.
Research Design
Panel-based analysis tracking within-person changes in economic perceptions before and after the 2016 presidential transition.
Data Employed
Eight waves of panel survey data around the 2016 election from a national probability sample, combined with objective economic indicators and respondent-level political covariates.
Substantive Importance
The findings qualify classic models of retrospective voting by showing that economic accountability is partly filtered through partisan interpretation. This helps explain why evaluations of economic performance can diverge sharply across partisan groups.
Research Areas
Presidential Accountability, Partisanship, Economic Voting, Electoral Behavior, Public Opinion, Retrospective Voting
Citation
@article{transition,
author = {Ang, Zoe and Reeves, Andrew and Rogowski, Jon C. and Vishwanath, Arjun},
title = {Partisanship, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Accountability},
journal = {{American Journal of Political Science}},
volume = {66},
number = {2},
pages = {468--484},
year = {2022},
}