The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections

Yes. Voters are more likely to support incumbent presidents (or their party’s nominee) when federal spending in their counties increases. The effect is strongest in battleground states and among liberal and moderate voters, especially when congressional co-partisanship clarifies partisan responsibility.

Research Question

Do voters reward presidents for increased federal spending in their communities?

Main Finding

Yes. Voters are more likely to support incumbent presidents (or their party’s nominee) when federal spending in their counties increases. The effect is strongest in battleground states and among liberal and moderate voters, especially when congressional co-partisanship clarifies partisan responsibility.

Research Design

A county- and individual-level analysis of presidential elections from 1988 to 2008, testing whether increases in federal spending lead to electoral rewards for presidents.

Data Employed

County-level federal grant data linked to electoral returns, as well as individual-level survey data from the 2008 election, allowing for ideological conditioning.

Substantive Importance

The findings suggest that, contrary to claims that voters favor fiscal restraint, federal largesse is electorally beneficial for presidents. This work shifts the scholarly focus from congressional pork to presidential credit-claiming for distributive politics.

Research Areas

Distributive Politics, Presidential Elections, County-Level Analysis, Swing States, Retrospective Voting

Citation

@article{spending,
  author = {Kriner, Douglas L. and Reeves, Andrew},
  title = {The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections},
  journal = {{American Political Science Review}},
  volume = {106},
  number = {2},
  pages = {348--366},
  year = {2012},
}

Links

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