Make it Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters
Research Question
Do voters reward or punish presidents for natural disasters, and does the distribution of federal disaster aid affect electoral outcomes?
Main Finding
Presidents gain electoral support in counties that receive disaster declarations and federal assistance, but only when the response is timely and well-publicized. Voters appear to reward presidents for responsiveness, not just for objective conditions.
Research Design
County-level analysis of presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, using event-study designs to isolate the effects of disaster aid on vote share.
Data Employed
FEMA disaster declaration records, county-level presidential vote returns, and timing of federal relief announcements.
Substantive Importance
This study shows how electoral accountability can function even in the face of uncontrollable events. It also demonstrates how presidents use disasters to enhance their reelection prospects through visible governance.
Research Areas
Disaster Politics, Presidential Accountability, Retrospective Voting, County-Level Analysis, Distributive Politics
Citation
@article{rain,
author = {Gasper, John T. and Reeves, Andrew},
title = {Make it Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
volume = {55},
number = {2},
pages = {340--355},
year = {2011},
}