Reconsidering Bellwether Locations in U.S. Presidential Elections
Research Question
Do bellwether counties retain predictive value in U.S. presidential elections, and how stable are they over time?
Main Finding
The number of reliable bellwether counties has declined significantly in the era of geographic polarization. Even counties with long records of picking winners have recently lost that predictive power.
Research Design
Historical analysis of voting patterns in U.S. counties across multiple presidential elections, using several definitions of bellwether status.
Data Employed
County-level presidential election returns from the 1930s through 2020.
Substantive Importance
Challenges the media and popular narratives around bellwether counties by showing that past performance is not a strong predictor of future electoral outcomes. Highlights the effects of polarization and demographic sorting on electoral forecasting.
Research Areas
Electoral Geography, Polarization, County-Level Analysis, Presidential Elections, Quantitative Methods
Citation
@article{bellwether,
author = {Gimpel, James G. and Reeves, Andrew and Trende, Sean},
title = {Reconsidering Bellwether Locations in U.S. Presidential Elections},
journal = {Presidential Studies Quarterly},
volume = {52},
number = {3},
pages = {509--534},
year = {2022},
}