Turning Out the Base or Appealing to the Periphery? An Analysis of County-Level Candidate Appearances in the 2008 Presidential Campaign
Research Question
Within swing states, do presidential candidates target supportive areas (
Main Finding
In 2008, McCain-Palin pursued a base strategy, campaigning in Republican strongholds, while Obama-Biden used a peripheral strategy focused on high-growth, less partisan counties. These choices reflect divergent campaign strategies with implications for electoral outreach.
Research Design
Empirical analysis of county-level campaign appearance data during the 2008 general election.
Data Employed
Original dataset of all candidate appearances in 2008, linked to county demographics, past vote margins, and population changes.
Substantive Importance
Offers a rare look inside campaign decision-making within battleground states. Reveals how geography and demography interact in presidential campaign strategy, and why campaigns might ignore swing areas in favor of predictable partisan terrain.
Research Areas
Campaign Strategy, Presidential Elections, Electoral Geography, Swing States, County-Level Analysis
Citation
@article{appearances,
author = {Chen, Lanhee J. and Reeves, Andrew},
title = {Turning Out the Base or Appealing to the Periphery? An Analysis of County-Level Candidate Appearances in the 2008 Presidential Campaign},
journal = {American Politics Research},
volume = {39},
number = {3},
pages = {534--556},
year = {2011},
}